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Executive summary│2024 considerations – regions
(part 3 of 3)
Politics will be pivotal in 2024 with the year marking the biggest election cycle in history – energy transition investments may be in a “wait and see” mode
Key regional themes for 2024
- 2024 will be the biggest election year in history. More than 75 countries, over 50% of the world’s population, that account for two-thirds of global GDP, will hold national or major regional elections this year. This will slow policymaking, boost market volatility and may critically hinder energy transition investments.
- Team US will be the election to watch for climate policy direction, but also elections in the EU and India for the pace of climate action. Team ASEAN will be looking to expand its efforts in grid distribution. Team MENA will try to double-down on COP28 commitments though doubling down on low-emission technologies and safeguarding energy security by powering ahead with fossil fuel investments. Team Africa is a growing voice (in adaptation and financing). Finally, Brazil will be seeking to be more visible as it prepares to lead Team LatAm into a major climate event (COP30 in November 2025).
- Besides elections, major emitters will hone domestic legislation and prepare for upcoming updates to their climate pledges. In our view, it will take one key developed market (likely the EU) and one key emerging market (likely Brazil) to bring about peer pressure on raising ambition levels of climate pledges. On the other hand, if politics goes the other way, peer pressure could be significantly reduced.
- In this report, we offer our clients an examination of the key regional themes for 2024:
- Europe – scaling the flagship Green Deal
- UK – slow transition progress could change with a new government
- USA – Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) debates in scaling clean tech and ESG battlegrounds
- China – new phase, new transition finance with ESG rules pending
- India – more little steps
- ASEAN – Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP) and regulations
- MENA – doubling down on sustainability after two COPs
- Latin America – all-round development
- Oceania – from piecemeal to cohesive transition progress
- Africa – growing voice in adaptation and financing
