The MUFG Global Markets Podcast: May FOMC Preview and still worried about macro divergences - 1 May 2024
This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through what to expect at the May FOMC meeting. We believe that QT will be tapered while the Fed will start to acknowledge that real rates are too restrictive. Our base case is that Chair Powell will say tightening is working, but they are being mindful of the long and variable lags. Also, on the slightly more hawkish side, Chair Powell will likely reiterate that the FOMC lacks confidence on future inflation path and is not ready to commit to the timing on rate cuts. Lastly, George briefly highlights why we are still focused on and worried about the ongoing macro divergences in U.S. economic data and that the economy looks stronger due to fiscal policy.