Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

In the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Rankings for Q3 2024, MUFG was ranked #3 for G10 FX & #2 for EMEA FX.

For individual G10 FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for EUR/USD, #2 for GBP/USD, #3 for AUD/USD, and #6 for NZD/USD. For EM FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for USD/RON, #2 for USD/HUF, #2 for USD/PLN, #2 for EUR/RUB, #3 for EUR/HUF and #4 for USD/CZK.

Latest FX forecast update: 02 September 2025

  • FX Rates

      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    DXY 97.600 95.530 93.610 92.300
    USD/JPY 146.00 144.00 142.00 140.00
    EUR/USD 1.1700 1.2000 1.2300 1.2500
    GBP/USD 1.3530 1.3790 1.3980 1.4040
    USD/CNY 7.1000 7.1000 7.0800 7.0500
    AUD/USD 0.6500 0.6600 0.6700 0.6900
    NZD/USD 0.6000 0.6100 0.6200 0.6300
    USD/CAD 1.3600 1.3500 1.3400 1.3300
    USD/NOK 10.085 9.833 9.512 9.280
    USD/SEK 9.487 9.250 8.943 8.640
    USD/CHF 0.8030 0.7830 0.7720 0.7680
             
    USD/CZK 20.850 20.250 19.670 19.200
    USD/HUF 338.50 329.20 318.70 310.40
    USD/PLN 3.6320 3.5420 3.4630 3.4240
    USD/RON 4.3330 4.2420 4.1540 4.1120
    USD/RUB 79.89 80.73 83.37 85.39
    USD/ZAR 17.500 17.250 17.000 17.000
    USD/TRY 42.000 44.000 46.250 47.250
             
    USD/INR 88.200 88.900 89.000 89.000
    USD/IDR 16170 16140 16040 15930
    USD/MYR 4.2000 4.1500 4.0800 4.0600
    USD/PHP 57.000 56.500 56.000 56.000
    USD/SGD 1.2800 1.2700 1.2600 1.2600
    USD/KRW 1380.0 1375.0 1370.0 1365.0
    USD/TWD 30.400 30.200 30.000 29.800
    USD/THB 32.600 32.500 32.400 32.300
    USD/VND 26400 26500 26600 26700
             
    USD/ARS 1350.0 1400.00 1425.0 1475.0
    USD/BRL 5.4500 5.4000 5.3500 5.3000
    USD/CLP 960.0 945.0 935.0 935.0
    USD/MXN 18.750 18.500 18.250 18.000
             
    USD/SAR 3.750 3.750 3.750 3.750
    USD/EGP 50.800 51.000 51.200 51.400
  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.8% 1.5% 1.6%
    Japan 0.1% 0.4% 0.6%
    Euro area 0.9% 1.2% 1.2%
       Germany -0.2% 0.4% 1.1%
       France 1.2% 0.6% 0.7%
       Italy 0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
    UK 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%
    Switzerland 1.4% 1.0% 0.6%
    Norway 0.6% 1.4% 1.4%
    Sweden 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
    Canada 1.5% 1.3% 1.1%
    Australia 1.1% 1.8% 2.3%
    New Zealand -0.5% 1.1% 2.3%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
    India 6.0% 6.1% 6.5%
    Indonesia 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%
    Malaysia 5.1% 4.1% 4.1%
    Philippines 5.6% 5.7% 6.0%
    Singapore 4.4% 1.9% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.1% 1.0% 1.6%
    Taiwan 4.6% 2.9% 2.6%
    Thailand 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%
    Vietnam 7.1% 6.9% 7.4%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 2.70% 2.78% 2.97%
    Czech Rep. -0.10% 1.81% 1.95%
    Egypt 4.10% 3.83% 4.34%
    Hungary 0.70% 1.20% 2.78%
    Iraq 0.03% -1.5% 1.44%
    Israel 0.50% 3.13% 3.80%
    Jordan 2.30% 2.55% 2.85%
    Kenya 5.00% 4.81% 5.02%
    Kuwait -0.90% 2.28% 3.04%
    Morocco 3.00% 3.90% 3.77%
    Nigeria 3.00% 3.26% 3.14%
    Oman 1.70% 2.57% 3.47%
    Poland 2.80% 3.27% 3.15%
    Romania 1.20% 1.55% 2.58%
    Qatar 2.00% 2.48% 5.43%
    Russia 3.60% 1.43% 1.13%
    Saudi Arabia 1.20% 3.39% 3.90%
    South Africa 0.70% 0.99% 1.44%
    Turkey 3.00% 2.80% 3.20%
    Ukraine 3.90% 2.30% 4.50%
    UAE 3.70% 4.27% 4.84%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%
    Japan 2.7% 2.8% 1.7%
    Euro area 2.4% 2.1% 1.8%
       Germany 2.5% 2.2% 2.0%
       France 2.3% 1.1% 1.5%
       Italy 1.1% 1.8% 1.7%
    UK 2.5% 3.4% 2.4%
    Switzerland 1.1% 0.3% 0.5%
    Norway 3.2% 2.7% 2.1%
    Sweden 2.9% 0.9% 1.6%
    Canada 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
    Australia 3.2% 2.4% 2.5%
    New Zealand 2.9% 2.4% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
    India 4.6% 3.0% 4.1%
    Indonesia 2.3% 1.8% 1.8%
    Malaysia 1.8% 1.6% 1.6%
    Philippines 3.2% 1.8% 3.2%
    Singapore 2.4% 1.1% 1.5%
    South Korea 2.3% 2.0% 1.9%
    Taiwan 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%
    Thailand 0.4% 0.5% 1.0%
    Vietnam 3.6% 3.5% 4.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.0% 1.0% 1.6%
    Czech Rep. 2.5% 2.5% 2.1%
    Egypt 31.0% 17.7% 12.1%
    Hungary 3.7% 4.8% 3.5%
    Iraq 1.6% 2.5% 2.7%
    Israel 3.1% 2.9% 2.1%
    Jordan 1.5% 3.0% 2.4%
    Kenya 4.6% 4.2% 5.1%
    Kuwait 3.0% 2.5% 2.2%
    Morocco 1.6% 2.0% 2.3%
    Nigeria 32.6% 24.2% 26.9%
    Oman 0.7% 1.3% 1.8%
    Poland 3.8% 4.0% 3.1%
    Romania 5.5% 4.7% 3.5%
    Qatar 1.2% 1.3% 1.6%
    Russia 8.1% 9.2% 5.5%
    Saudi Arabia 1.7% 2.0% 2.0%
    South Africa 4.6% 3.6% 4.4%
    Turkey 59.9% 35.1% 22.5%
    Ukraine 6.1% 12.8% 7.3%
    UAE 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
  • Policy Rates

      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    Fed 4.13% 3.88% 3.63% 3.38%
    BoJ 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% 1.00%
    ECB 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.50%
    BoE 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25%
    SNB 0.00% -0.25% -0.25% -0.25%
    Norges Bank 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75%
    Riksbank 2.00% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
    BoC 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 2.00%
    RBA 3.60% 3.35% 3.35% 3.10%
    RBNZ 3.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
             
      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    China 7-day Repo 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 1.00%
    China 1-year LPR 2.80% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%
    India 5.50% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
    Indonesia 5.25% 5.00% 4.75% 4.50%
    Malaysia 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
    Singapore 1.67% 1.58% 1.53% 1.36%
    South Korea 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75%
    Taiwan 2.00% 1.88% 1.75% 1.63%
    Thailand 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 1.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.75% 3.63% 3.50% 3.38%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.38% 4.25% 4.13% 4.00%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.90% 1.80% 1.70% 1.70%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.60% 2.50% 2.55% 2.55%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.00% 1.10% 1.20% 1.30%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 1.65% 1.70% 1.80% 1.85%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.75% 4.70% 4.50% 4.40%

     

I understand that any materials on this website have been produced only for persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction and in jurisdictions which the MUFG entity producing the material is permitted to do so under applicable laws, rules and regulations.

I also understand that all materials on this website are not investment research or investment advice.