Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

In the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Rankings for Q3 2024, MUFG was ranked #3 for G10 FX & #2 for EMEA FX.

For individual G10 FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for EUR/USD, #2 for GBP/USD, #3 for AUD/USD, and #6 for NZD/USD. For EM FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for USD/RON, #2 for USD/HUF, #2 for USD/PLN, #2 for EUR/RUB, #3 for EUR/HUF and #4 for USD/CZK.

Latest FX forecast update: 6 January 2025

  • FX Rates

      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    USD/JPY 154.00 152.00 150.00 148.00
    EUR/USD 0.9900 1.0200 1.0500 1.0800
    GBP/USD 1.2000 1.2440 1.2800 1.3010
    USD/CNY 7.4000 7.5000 7.5000 7.4000
    AUD/USD 0.5900 0.6000 0.6200 0.6400
    NZD/USD 0.5350 0.5400 0.5600 0.5800
    USD/CAD 1.4500 1.4400 1.4200 1.3900
    USD/NOK 12.020 11.863 11.619 11.019
    USD/SEK 11.717 11.569 11.333 10.833
    USD/CHF 0.9390 0.9020 0.8860 0.8700
             
    USD/CZK 25.560 24.900 24.290 23.700
    USD/HUF 420.20 410.80 401.90 393.50
    USD/PLN 4.3330 4.2250 4.1240 4.0280
    USD/RON 5.0300 4.9020 4.7900 4.6850
    USD/RUB 114.52 116.95 119.32 121.62
    USD/ZAR 19.250 19.500 19.250 19.000
    USD/TRY 37.250 39.250 41.250 43.250
             
    USD/INR 86.800 87.500 88.000 88.500
    USD/IDR 16250 16210 16170 16100
    USD/MYR 4.5700 4.5500 4.5200 4.4800
    USD/PHP 59.700 59.300 59.000 58.800
    USD/SGD 1.3800 1.3750 1.3700 1.3650
    USD/KRW 1480.0 1500.0 1500.0 1470.0
    USD/TWD 33.200 33.400 33.300 33.100
    USD/THB 35.900 36.000 35.700 35.500
    USD/VND 25800 25900 25800 25700
             
    USD/ARS 1110.0 1200.0 1310.0 1500.0
    USD/BRL 6.4000 6.6000 6.5000 6.4000
    USD/CLP 1040.0 1060.0 1070.0 1050.0
    USD/MXN 21.750 21.500 21.000 21.000
             
    USD/SAR 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500
    USD/EGP 49.700 49.300 49.100 48.700
  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.7% 2.1% 2.1%
    Japan -0.2% 1.2% 1.0%
    Euro area 0.7% 0.9% 1.2%
       Germany -0.2% 0.5% 1.1%
       France 1.1% 0.9% 1.0%
       Italy 0.5% 0.7% 1.0%
    UK 0.9% 1.5% 1.6%
    Switzerland 1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
    Norway 0.9% 1.3% 1.4%
    Sweden 0.6% 1.7% 2.0%
    Canada 1.3% 1.9% 1.8%
    Australia 1.0% 2.0% 2.5%
    New Zealand -0.1% 1.1% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 4.8% 4.5% 4.7%
    India 6.1% 6.3% 6.8%
    Indonesia 5.1% 4.9% 5.0%
    Malaysia 5.0% 4.7% 4.5%
    Philippines 5.5% 6.3% 6.5%
    Singapore 3.3% 2.9% 2.7%
    South Korea 2.3% 1.8% 2.0%
    Taiwan 4.3% 3.4% 2.5%
    Thailand 2.9% 3.1% 3.3%
    Vietnam 6.7% 6.0% 6.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 2.70% 3.00% 2.8%
    Czech Rep. -0.10% 2.50% 2.4%
    Egypt 4.10% 4.90% 5.0%
    Hungary 0.70% 2.60% 3.1%
    Iraq 0.03% 2.04% 2.6%
    Israel 0.50% 3.50% 4.4%
    Jordan 2.30% 2.60% 2.9%
    Kenya 5.00% 5.50% 5.2%
    Kuwait -0.90% 3.10% 2.7%
    Morocco 33.00% 3.70% 3.5%
    Nigeria 3.00% 3.20% 3.2%
    Oman 1.70% 3.20% 3.6%
    Poland 2.80% 3.40% 3.4%
    Romania 1.20% 2.90% 3.5%
    Qatar 2.00% 3.00% 5.4%
    Russia 3.60% 1.50% 1.3%
    Saudi Arabia 1.20% 4.60% 4.4%
    South Africa 0.70% 1.80% 1.7%
    Turkey 3.00% 2.90% 3.4%
    Ukraine 3.90% 4.10% 5.2%
    UAE 3.70% 5.00% 4.7%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 3.0% 2.4% 2.4%
    Japan 2.6% 2.2% 1.9%
    Euro area 2.4% 2.0% 1.9%
       Germany 2.5% 2.0% 2.0%
       France 2.3% 1.8% 1.9%
       Italy 1.1% 1.6% 1.7%
    UK 2.5% 2.4% 2.1%
    Switzerland 1.1% 0.8% 1.0%
    Norway 3.2% 2.3% 2.0%
    Sweden 2.9% 1.6% 1.9%
    Canada 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
    Australia 3.1% 2.7% 2.6%
    New Zealand 2.8% 1.9% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.4% 1.2% 1.7%
    India 5.0% 4.2% 4.3%
    Indonesia 2.4% 2.5% 3.0%
    Malaysia 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%
    Philippines 3.2% 2.7% 3.0%
    Singapore 2.5% 1.9% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.2% 1.8% 1.6%
    Taiwan 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%
    Thailand 0.4% 1.7% 2.0%
    Vietnam 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.0% 1.7% 2.0%
    Czech Rep. 2.5% 2.3% 2.0%
    Egypt 31.0% 15.5% 12.4%
    Hungary 3.7% 3.7% 3.2%
    Iraq 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%
    Israel 3.1% 2.9% 2.3%
    Jordan 1.5% 2.0% 2.3%
    Kenya 4.6% 5.0% 5.2%
    Kuwait 3.0% 2.4% 2.3%
    Morocco 1.6% 2.4% 2.2%
    Nigeria 32.6% 24.9% 14.9%
    Oman 0.7% 1.3% 1.8%
    Poland 3.8% 4.4% 3.2%
    Romania 5.5% 3.8% 3.4%
    Qatar 1.2% 1.6% 1.9%
    Russia 8.1% 6.6% 4.5%
    Saudi Arabia 1.7% 1.9% 2.0%
    South Africa 4.6% 4.3% 4.5%
    Turkey 59.9% 32.1% 19.6%
    Ukraine 6.1% 9.2% 6.9%
    UAE 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%
  • Policy Rates

      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    Fed 4.13% 3.88% 3.63% 3.63%
    BoJ 0.50% 0.50% 0.75% 0.75%
    ECB 2.50% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    BoE 4.50% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75%
    SNB 0.25% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
    Norges Bank 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75%
    Riksbank 2.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    BoC 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50%
    RBA 4.10% 3.85% 3.60% 3.60%
    RBNZ 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.25%
             
      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    China 7-day Repo 1.30% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
    China 1-year MLF 1.70% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
    China 1-year LPR 2.90% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
    India 6.25% 6.25% 6.00% 6.00%
    Indonesia 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% 5.00%
    Malaysia 3.00% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 5.00%
    Singapore 3.10% 2.90% 2.70% 2.60%
    South Korea 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.25%
    Taiwan 2.00% 1.88% 1.75% 1.63%
    Thailand 2.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
             
      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    Bahrain 5.75% 5.75% 5.50% 5.50%
    Czech Rep. 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00%
    Egypt 27.25% 23.25% 18.25% 13.25%
    Hungary 6.25% 5.75% 5.50% 5.00%
    Iraq 3.25% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
    Israel 4.00% 3.75% 3.75% 3.50%
    Jordan 7.00% 7.00% 6.75% 6.75%
    Kenya 11.00% 10.75% 10.75% 10.50%
    Kuwait 3.75% 3.75% 3.50% 3.50%
    Morocco 2.25% 2.25% 2.00% 2.00%
    Nigeria 27.50% 27.00% 25.50% 22.50%
    Oman 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.25%
    Poland 5.75% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50%
    Romania 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 5.00%
    Qatar 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.25%
    Russia 21.00% 21.00% 19.00% 17.00%
    Saudi Arabia 4.25% 4.25% 4.00% 4.00%
    South Africa 7.25% 7.25% 7.00% 7.00%
    Turkey 43.50% 37.75% 32.00% 28.50%
    Ukraine 13.50% 12.50% 11.50% 10.50%
    UAE 4.25% 4.25% 4.00% 4.00%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.13% 4.00% 3.88% 3.75%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.50% 4.38% 4.50% 4.38%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.90% 1.80% 1.90% 1.90%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.20% 2.10% 2.20% 2.30%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 0.80% 0.90% 1.05% 1.25%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 1.20% 1.25% 1.30% 1.40%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.10% 3.80% 3.70% 3.70%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.30% 4.10% 4.20% 4.40%
  • Commodities

      Unit Q4-24 Q1-25 Q2-25 Q3-25 Q4-25   2024 2025 2026
    US Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 2.84 3.20 2.90 2.70 2.90   3.50 2.93 3.40
    EU Natural Gas EUR/MWh 43.00 52.00 38.00 33.00 29.00   38.58 38.00 28.00
    WTI Crude USD/b 70.00 68.00 64.00 69.00 72.00   72.58 68.25 78.00
    Brent Crude USD/b 75.00 73.00 69.00 74.00 77.00   77.32 73.25 83.00
    EU ETS EUA EUR/MT 67.00 73.00 75.00 79.00 82.00   68.54 77.25 85.00
                         
    Copper USD/lb 8,830 9,050 9,275 9,650 9,900   9,145 9,469 11,500
    Aluminium USD/MT 2,620 2,600 2,675 2,750 2,875   2,462 2,725 2,950
    Zinc USD/MT 3,065 3,150 3,050 3,200 3,325   2,811 3,181 3,450
    Nickel USD/MT 16,450 16,025 15,800 15,700 15,850   17,111 15,844 15,500
                         
    Gold USD/t oz 2,750 2,850 2,775 3,050 3,080   2,410 2,939 3,280
    Silver USD/t oz 32.10 32.50 31.85 32.80 33.50   29.29 32.66 35.50
    Platinum USD/t oz 975 1,015 1,045 1,020 1,045   982.65 1,031 1,090
    Palladium USD/t oz 1,030 940 960 965 1,020   1,003 971 1,050
                         
    Hard Coking Coal USD/MT 208.00 215.00 235.00 240.00 230.00   247.51 230.00 275.00
    Iron Ore USD/MT 102.00 95.00 90.00 100.00 105.00   104.47 97.50 112.50
                         
    Soybean USD/bu 1,005 1,020 1,000 1,050 975   1,108 1,011 1,050
    Wheat USD/bu 580.00 615.00 600.00 620.00 675.00   618.58 627.50 620.00
    Corn USD/bu 430.00 420.00 450.00 415.00 475.00   455.46 440.00 485.00
    Cotton USD/lb 72.00 70.00 72.00 75.00 78.00   76.12 73.75 80.00
    Coffee USD/lb 4,800 4,950 4,250 4,000 3,750   3,846 4,238 3,500
    Sugar USD/lb 21.85 21.50 21.25 21.00 21.50   20.81 21.31 22.00

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I also understand that all materials on this website are not investment research or investment advice.