Forecasts

Our global economic and financial forecasts

Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over coming quarters.

In the latest Bloomberg FX Forecast Accuracy Rankings for Q3 2024, MUFG was ranked #3 for G10 FX & #2 for EMEA FX.

For individual G10 FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for EUR/USD, #2 for GBP/USD, #3 for AUD/USD, and #6 for NZD/USD. For EM FX pairs, MUFG was ranked #1 for USD/RON, #2 for USD/HUF, #2 for USD/PLN, #2 for EUR/RUB, #3 for EUR/HUF and #4 for USD/CZK.

Latest FX forecast update: 1 April 2025

  • FX Rates

      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    USD/JPY 152.00 150.00 148.00 146.00
    EUR/USD 1.0600 1.0800 1.1000 1.1400
    GBP/USD 1.2850 1.2930 1.3170 1.3570
    USD/CNY 7.4000 7.4000 7.3500 7.3000
    AUD/USD 0.6100 0.6300 0.6500 0.6600
    NZD/USD 0.5600 0.5700 0.5800 0.6000
    USD/CAD 1.4800 1.4700 1.4200 1.3800
    USD/NOK 10.943 10.648 10.364 9.825
    USD/SEK 10.472 10.370 10.000 9.474
    USD/CHF 0.8870 0.8610 0.8450 0.8330
             
    USD/CZK 23.580 23.150 22.550 21.670
    USD/HUF 382.10 379.60 377.30 364.00
    USD/PLN 3.9620 3.8890 3.8640 3.7280
    USD/RON 4.6980 4.6200 4.5550 4.4120
    USD/RUB 87.63 88.80 89.95 89.37
    USD/ZAR 18.500 18.750 19.000 18.750
    USD/TRY 39.500 41.500 44.000 46.000
             
    USD/INR 86.800 87.200 87.500 87.000
    USD/IDR 16625 16410 16200 16300
    USD/MYR 4.5500 4.4500 4.4000 4.3500
    USD/PHP 58.800 58.500 58.200 58.000
    USD/SGD 1.3750 1.3700 1.3650 1.3500
    USD/KRW 1480.0 1475.0 1460.0 1445.0
    USD/TWD 33.500 33.400 33.100 32.800
    USD/THB 35.400 35.700 35.500 35.000
    USD/VND 25900 25900 25900 25800
             
    USD/ARS 1225.0 1400.00 1500.0 1600.0
    USD/BRL 5.8500 5.9000 6.0000 6.0500
    USD/CLP 965.0 980.0 990.0 1000.0
    USD/MXN 20.750 21.000 20.750 20.500
             
    USD/SAR 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500 3.7500
    USD/EGP 50.800 51.000 51.200 51.400
  • Growth (GDP)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 2.7% 2.1% 2.1%
    Japan -0.2% 1.2% 1.0%
    Euro area 0.7% 0.9% 1.4%
       Germany -0.2% 0.5% 1.7%
       France 1.2% 0.7% 1.0%
       Italy 0.7% 0.7% 1.0%
    UK 0.9% 1.0% 1.5%
    Switzerland 1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
    Norway 0.9% 1.3% 1.4%
    Sweden 0.6% 1.7% 2.0%
    Canada 1.3% 1.9% 1.8%
    Australia 1.0% 2.0% 2.5%
    New Zealand -0.1% 1.1% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 4.8% 4.5% 4.7%
    India 6.1% 6.3% 6.8%
    Indonesia 5.1% 4.9% 5.0%
    Malaysia 5.0% 4.7% 4.5%
    Philippines 5.5% 6.3% 6.5%
    Singapore 3.3% 2.9% 2.7%
    South Korea 2.3% 1.8% 2.0%
    Taiwan 4.3% 3.4% 2.5%
    Thailand 2.9% 3.1% 3.3%
    Vietnam 6.7% 6.0% 6.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 2.70% 3.00% 2.90%
    Czech Rep. -0.10% 2.30% 2.40%
    Egypt 4.10% 4.20% 4.80%
    Hungary 0.70% 2.30% 3.20%
    Iraq 0.03% 4.07% 5.20%
    Israel 0.50% 3.50% 3.90%
    Jordan 2.30% 2.60% 2.70%
    Kenya 5.00% 5.00% 5.30%
    Kuwait -0.90% 3.00% 2.90%
    Morocco 3.00% 3.90% 3.80%
    Nigeria 3.00% 3.30% 3.40%
    Oman 1.70% 3.20% 3.00%
    Poland 2.80% 3.30% 3.20%
    Romania 1.20% 2.90% 2.90%
    Qatar 2.00% 2.70% 5.20%
    Russia 3.60% 1.60% 1.40%
    Saudi Arabia 1.20% 4.60% 4.60%
    South Africa 0.70% 1.70% 1.90%
    Turkey 3.00% 2.60% 3.50%
    Ukraine 3.90% 3.40% 4.80%
    UAE 3.70% 5.00% 4.20%
  • Inflation (CPI)

      2024 2025 2026
    US 3.0% 2.4% 2.4%
    Japan 2.6% 2.2% 1.9%
    Euro area 2.4% 2.2% 2.0%
       Germany 2.5% 2.0% 2.2%
       France 2.3% 1.7% 1.8%
       Italy 1.1% 1.8% 1.9%
    UK 2.5% 3.1% 2.2%
    Switzerland 1.1% 0.8% 1.0%
    Norway 3.2% 2.3% 2.0%
    Sweden 2.9% 1.6% 1.9%
    Canada 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
    Australia 3.1% 2.7% 2.6%
    New Zealand 2.8% 1.9% 2.0%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    China 0.4% 1.2% 1.7%
    India 5.0% 4.2% 4.3%
    Indonesia 2.4% 2.5% 3.0%
    Malaysia 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%
    Philippines 3.2% 2.7% 3.0%
    Singapore 2.5% 1.9% 1.8%
    South Korea 2.2% 1.8% 1.6%
    Taiwan 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%
    Thailand 0.4% 1.7% 2.0%
    Vietnam 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
           
      2024 2025 2026
    Bahrain 1.0% 1.7% 1.9%
    Czech Rep. 2.5% 2.3% 2.1%
    Egypt 31.0% 18.5% 12.0%
    Hungary 3.7% 4.2% 3.5%
    Iraq 1.6% 3.5% 3.5%
    Israel 3.1% 2.9% 2.3%
    Jordan 1.5% 2.0% 2.2%
    Kenya 4.6% 4.9% 5.2%
    Kuwait 3.0% 2.5% 2.3%
    Morocco 1.6% 2.2% 2.1%
    Nigeria 32.6% 25.8% 15.0%
    Oman 0.7% 1.3% 1.2%
    Poland 3.8% 4.4% 3.2%
    Romania 5.5% 3.9% 3.9%
    Qatar 1.2% 1.7% 1.9%
    Russia 8.1% 7.6% 5.4%
    Saudi Arabia 1.7% 1.9% 1.9%
    South Africa 4.6% 4.1% 4.5%
    Turkey 59.9% 32.5% 21.0%
    Ukraine 6.1% 11.6% 6.7%
    UAE 2.2% 2.0% 2.1%
  • Policy Rates

      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    Fed 4.13% 3.88% 3.63% 3.63%
    BoJ 0.50% 0.50% 0.75% 0.75%
    ECB 2.50% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    BoE 4.50% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75%
    SNB 0.25% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
    Norges Bank 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75%
    Riksbank 2.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    BoC 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50%
    RBA 4.10% 3.85% 3.60% 3.60%
    RBNZ 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.25%
             
      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    China 7-day Repo 1.30% 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
    China 1-year MLF 1.70% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
    China 1-year LPR 2.90% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
    India 6.25% 6.25% 6.00% 6.00%
    Indonesia 5.75% 5.50% 5.25% 5.00%
    Malaysia 3.00% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
    Philippines 5.50% 5.25% 5.00% 5.00%
    Singapore 3.10% 2.90% 2.70% 2.60%
    South Korea 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.25%
    Taiwan 2.00% 1.88% 1.75% 1.63%
    Thailand 2.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
    Vietnam 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
             
      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    Bahrain 6.00% 5.75% 5.75% 5.50%
    Czech Rep. 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.25%
    Egypt 25.00% 22.00% 20.00% 18.25%
    Hungary 6.50% 6.50% 6.25% 5.75%
    Iraq 4.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
    Israel 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00%
    Jordan 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% 6.75%
    Kenya 10.75% 10.50% 10.25% 9.75%
    Kuwait 4.00% 3.75% 3.65% 3.50%
    Morocco 2.50% 2.25% 2.25% 2.00%
    Nigeria 27.50% 27.00% 26.00% 25.00%
    Oman 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% 4.50%
    Poland 5.75% 5.75% 5.50% 5.00%
    Romania 6.50% 6.00% 5.25% 4.50%
    Qatar 4.85% 4.50% 4.50% 4.25%
    Russia 21.00% 19.00% 18.00% 17.00%
    Saudi Arabia 4.50% 4.25% 4.25% 4.00%
    South Africa 7.50% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00%
    Turkey 42.50% 37.50% 32.50% 28.50%
    Ukraine 15.50% 15.00% 14.00% 13.50%
    UAE 4.25% 4.00% 4.00% 3.75%
  • Govt. Bond Yields

      Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
    US 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.13% 4.00% 3.88% 3.75%
    US 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.50% 4.38% 4.50% 4.38%
             
    Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield 1.90% 1.80% 1.90% 1.90%
    Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield 2.20% 2.10% 2.20% 2.30%
             
    Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield 0.80% 0.90% 1.05% 1.25%
    Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield 1.20% 1.25% 1.30% 1.40%
             
    UK 2-Year Govt. Yield 4.10% 3.80% 3.70% 3.70%
    UK 10-Year Govt. Yield 4.30% 4.10% 4.20% 4.40%
  • Commodities

      Unit Q1-25 Q2-25 Q3-25 Q4-25   2024 2025 2026
    US Natural Gas USD/MMBtu 3.20 2.90 2.70 2.90   3.11 2.93 3.40
    EU Natural Gas EUR/MWh 52.00 38.00 33.00 29.00   38.77 38.00 28.00
    WTI Crude USD/b 68.00 64.00 69.00 72.00   72.11 68.25 78.00
    Brent Crude USD/b 73.00 69.00 74.00 77.00   76.61 73.25 83.00
    EU ETS EUA EUR/MT 73.00 75.00 79.00 82.00   68.84 77.25 85.00
                       
    Copper USD/lb 9,050 9,275 9,650 9,900   9,264 9,469 11,500
    Aluminium USD/MT 2,600 2,675 2,750 2,875   2,457 2,725 2,950
    Zinc USD/MT 3,150 3,050 3,200 3,325   2,810 3,181 3,450
    Nickel USD/MT 16,025 15,800 15,700 15,850   17,057 15,844 15,500
                       
    Gold USD/t oz 2,850 3,100 3,325 3,450   2,387 3,181 3,600
    Silver USD/t oz 32.50 34.50 36.10 37.60   29.48 35.18 39.00
    Platinum USD/t oz 1,015 1,045 1,020 1,045   984.53 1,031 1,090
    Palladium USD/t oz 940 960 965 1,020   1,001 971 1,050
                       
    Hard Coking Coal USD/MT 215.00 235.00 240.00 230.00   252.70 230.00 275.00
    Iron Ore USD/MT 95.00 90.00 100.00 105.00   103.53 97.50 112.50
                       
    Soybean USD/bu 1,020 1,000 1,050 975   1,109 1,011 1,050
    Wheat USD/bu 615.00 600.00 620.00 675.00   617.37 627.50 620.00
    Corn USD/bu 420.00 450.00 415.00 475.00   457.15 440.00 485.00
    Cotton USD/lb 70.00 72.00 75.00 78.00   76.01 73.75 80.00
    Coffee USD/lb 350.00 380.00 375.00 390.00   231.11 373.75 420.00
    Sugar USD/lb 21.50 21.25 21.00 21.50   20.71 21.31 22.00

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I also understand that all materials on this website are not investment research or investment advice.