Vietnam: SBV leans against VND strength, mild depreciation ahead

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Key Points

• The SBV’s new policy manages VND strength, liquidity and reserves simultaneously, with VND25,500 acting as a soft floor for USD/VND and limiting sustained VND appreciation. 

• Renewed USD purchases absorb excess dollar supply and inject VND liquidity, lowering short-term rates and reducing yield support for the VND.

• Trade support should moderate as October’s exceptional USD7.3bn surplus normalizes amid stronger import demand.

• We expect USD/VND to rise modestly toward 25,800 by year-end, before the VND regains a mild appreciation bias in 2027 on a weaker USD and supportive external balances.