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ECB policy update is unlikely to derail recent upward trend for EUR/USD

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ECB policy update is unlikely to derail recent upward trend for EUR/USD

  • ECB leaves policy rate on hold at 3.75%.
  • Forward guidance left unchanged as ECB reiterates that it’s not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
  • We expect the ECB to cut again in September as inflation slows over the summer. A view that is reasonably priced in by the euro-zone rate market.
  • EUR/USD on course to test top of current 1.0500-1.1000 trading range over the summer driven mainly by weaker USD leg.
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