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MPC vote signals progress but caution still warranted
- BoE leaves policy rate on hold for 5th consecutive meeting at 5.25%.
- The overall message from the statement suggests as before – returning inflation to target is proceeding but the point of being in a position to ease the monetary stance has not arrived.
- The vote did highlight progress with an 8-1 vote as both Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann drop their votes to hike.
- That alone justifies some increased probability of an earlier than we expect rate cut in June although whether the BoE ultimately moves in June or August remains a close call. We maintain our view of 100bps of cuts this year.
