JPY Weekly - 15 April 2024

Likely to remain deadlocked after reaching new high

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Week in review

The USD/JPY opened the week at 151.68. It rose gradually on 8 April in the Tokyo session after the US payrolls report released on Friday (5 April) pushed the dollar higher. It approached 152 but became top-heavy and ended up trading in a narrow range above 151.50. On the evening of 9 April, speculative articles that the BOJ would raise its inflation outlook in the April Outlook report temporarily pushed up the yen, but price movement was limited. The US CPI for March announced on 10 April beat the market's forecast overall, driving the dollar higher across the board. The USD/JPY broke past 152, rising to the 153 level by the end of the session. On the morning of 11 April during the Tokyo session, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Masato Kanda warned of intervention by Japanese authorities. This worked to pull the USD/JPY back to the upper 152 level for a time, but the pair recovered to the 153 level after European players came online. The ECB hinted it was poised to cut rates, leading to euro selling and dollar buying. This spilt over to the yen, sending the USD/JPY to a high for the week of 153.32. It was trading in the low 153 level at the time of writing this report on 12 April (Figure 1). The dollar was strong overall among G10 currencies this week. The euro was soft, and the yen was not notably weak (Figure 2).

FIGURE 1: USD/JPY

Note: Through 13:00 JST on 12 April

Source: EBS, Refinitiv, MUFG

FIGURE 2: MAJOR CURRENCIES' RATE OF CHANGE VS USD THIS WEEK

Note: Through 13:00 JST on 12 April

Source: Bloomberg, MUFG

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