MUFG’s EM GDP Nowcast Model – April 2023
- Our EM nowcast modelling framework that we launched earlier this year (see here) now estimates EM real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q1 2023 at 3.4% as of April 2023 vs 3.3% in March (consensus 2.7% vs 2.8% in March).
- The regional breakdown shows positive momentum with our estimates pointing to 5.9%, 1.6% and 1.4%, for EM Asia, EM EMEA, and LatAm, respectively.
- Strong Chinese economic data as well as the robust global PMI print coming in during the month of March dominates the EM investor risk despite increased financial market volatility.
MUFG’S EM NOWCAST MODEL SIGNALS GDP GROWTH OF 3.4% IN Q1 2023
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, EM statistical offices, Macrobond, MUFG Research
