EHSAN KHOMAN
Head of Commodities, ESG and
Emerging Markets Research –
EMEA
DIFC Branch – Dubai
T:+971 (4)387 5033
E: ehsan.khoman@ae.mufg.jp
RAMYA RS
Analyst
DIFC Branch – Dubai
T:+971 (4)387 5031
E: ramya.rs@ae.mufg.jp
MUFG Bank, Ltd.
A member of MUFG, a global financial group
MUFG’s EM GDP Nowcast Model – December 2023
- Our EM nowcast modelling framework that we launched earlier this year (see here) estimates EM real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q4 2023 at 4.7% as of November 2023 (consensus 4.4%).
- The regional breakdown of our estimates points to 5.4%, 2.4% and 1.5%, for EM Asia, EM EMEA, and LatAm, respectively.
- Relatively resilient EM PMI data, market consensus that US policy tightening may be over and recovering trade conditions, suggests greenshoots for certain EM economies, allowing us to remain relatively upbeat on the EM complex.
- We expect EM growth to trough this year but remain below potential in the 2024 recovery. The silver lining is that subdued growth should cap inflation, facilitating EM monetary policy easing ahead of the DM, where external balances allow. (see here)
