MUFG’s EM GDP Nowcast Model – June 2023
- Our EM nowcast modelling framework that we launched earlier this year (see here) continues to estimate EM real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2 2023 at 4.7% as of April 2023 (consensus 5.7%).
- The regional breakdown of our estimates points to 5.2%, 0.3% and 1.7%, for EM Asia, EM EMEA, and LatAm, respectively.
- Notwithstanding the ample ambiguity with regards to how fast inflation might converge to central bank targets, it is clear that inflation is (finally) turning a corner.
- Going forward, we expect EM growth to trough this year but remain below potential in the 2024 recovery. The silver lining is that subdued growth should cap inflation, facilitating monetary policy easing where external balances allow.
