MUFG’s EM GDP Nowcast Model – May 2023
- Our EM nowcast modelling framework that we launched earlier this year (see here) now estimates EM real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2 2023 at 4.7% as of April 2023 (consensus 5.7%).
- The Q1 2023 EM GDP was reported at 3.6% by Bloomberg, slightly higher than our model forecast of 3.4%.
- The regional breakdown of our estimates points to 6.3%, 1.0% and 1.9%, for EM Asia, EM EMEA, and LatAm, respectively.
- While financial conditions across EMs remains tight, our overall expectations for GDP growth, monetary policy and inflation are broadly unchanged.
MUFG’S EM NOWCAST MODEL SIGNALS GDP GROWTH OF 4.7% IN Q2 2023
