MUFG’s EM GDP Nowcast Model – September 2023
- Our EM nowcast modelling framework that we launched earlier this year (see here) now estimates EM real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2 2023 at 4.3% (4.1% previously) as of August 2023 (consensus 3.9%).
- The regional breakdown of our estimates points to 5.2%, 2.1% and 1.9%, for EM Asia, EM EMEA, and LatAm, respectively.
- Against a backdrop framed by slowing growth, stubborn inflation, fiscal and monetary policy pressures and constrained access to funding, but marginal improvements in data releases allow us to remain relatively upbeat on EM growth going forward.
- We expect EM growth to trough this year but remain below potential in the 2024 recovery. The silver lining is that subdued growth should cap inflation, facilitating EM monetary policy easing ahead of the DM (where external balances allow).
