BoJ's double normalization: Revisions to our monetary policy forecast
Key points
- We revise our rate hike forecast to 0.25% in 4Q 2024 (October), 0.50% in 4Q 2025, and 0.75% in 2026.
- The improvement in real wages should boost the output gap, leading to stronger demand-driven inflation.
- The BoJ is likely to slowly but steadily pursue a double normalization of both short-term interest rates and its balance sheet.
