Revised our BoJ scenario: Expect rate hikes in Jan-Mar 2025 and Jan-Mar 2026
Key points
- Revised our Japan economic forecast (based on upward revision for wage hike rates from spring labor-management wage negotiations, other factors) and our BoJ monetary policy scenario
- With BoJ returning to “ordinary” monetary policy, we expect additional rate hikes in Jan-Mar 2025 (to 0.25%) and Jan-Mar 2026 (to 0.50%)
- Gradual tapering while ascertaining whether inflation expectations anchored at 2%; accelerated yen depreciation as risk
