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Revising our BoJ policy rate scenario: We now expect additional rate hikes in Dec 2026 and Apr 2027

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Revising our BoJ policy rate scenario: We now expect additional rate hikes in Dec 2026 and Apr 2027

Key points

  • We have moved up our forecasts for BoJ rate hikes from January and June 2027 to December 2026 and April 2027

  • With further Fed rate hikes also anticipated, we think BoJ is likely to step up pace of adjustments in monetary accommodation

  • We continue to forecast terminal rate of 1.75%, but developments in external environment warrant close attention

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