Behavior of 10-year JGB yield and JGB futures IV ahead of recent BoJ meetings
JGB yield and yield curve scenario for February 19-22
The 10-year JGB yield continues to form a trading range between 0.70% and0.75% this week. Even if the 20-year offering on February 20 goes smoothly, the10-year yield is resistant to declines due to persistent concerns that an unwinding of NIRP will send bond yields higher. If the 10-year UST yield rises after the minutes of the January 30-31 FOMC meeting are released on February 21because of renewed worries about a delayed start to Fed rate cuts, the 10-yearJapanese bond yield moves higher in sympathy. The 20-year JGB yield trades at a level that keeps the 10s20s JGB spread at around 80bp
Forecast range:
10-year JGB yield: 0.700%–0.750%
20-year JGB yield: 1.500%–1.550%
