Referencing net trading of JGBs by five major investor groups during last rate-hiking phase
Key points
- To forecast net JGB trading volumes and JGB yields during current rate-hiking phase, we referenced previous phase (FY06)
- In FY06, JGB yields rose as bank selling predominated, but market then traded sideways as buying by trust banks, foreigners kicked in
- Even if FY06 patterns are reproduced during current rate-hiking phase, unlikely to be same overall as circumstances differ
