U.S. Desk Strategy Market Views

Bottom-line: It’s the end of the year, the end of a hiking cycle, but too soon to under-write an easing cycle

• Monetary Policy Updates: The Fed likely skips a 3rd time (marking the end of the cycle) but should sound slightly hawkish
• SEP Dot Expectations: We expect the Fed to keep 2 rate cuts for the '24 median rate, maybe long-run dot increases too
• FOMC Scenarios: Our base-case and uber-hawkish case have the highest probabilities, may trigger asset roll over