JGB Market Compass

10yr JGB futures market in 2024 as implied by January candlestick

• 10yr JGB futures market in 2024 according to "prediction" by January candlestick (likely black candlestick) = continued decline followed by bottoming or searching for lower level

• But, 30% chance "prediction" misses mark; in that case expect 2024 market to move lower then return

• Keys are (1) probability of consecutive rate hikes after BoJ ends NIRP and (2) UST market trends following Fed rate cuts