Asia FX Talk - IMF upgraded its global growth outlook

Ahead Today

G3: FOMC, US ADP employment change, US employment cost

Asia: China NBS manufacturing PMI, 4Q GDP data in Philippines, HK, and Taiwan, Singapore business confidence and unemployment rate, Thailand activity data

Market Highlights

The IMF has raised its world GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.1% in 2024, while warning about downside risks from geopolitical tensions. The growth upgrade was mainly driven by a better outlook for the US and China economies. US GDP growth forecast was upgraded by 0.6ppt to 2.1% in 2024. China’s GDP growth forecast was also revised up by 0.4ppt to 4.6% in 2024. But the IMF lowered their outlook for 2024 eurozone growth by 0.3ppt to 0.9%.

Eurozone GDP growth stagnated in Q4, albeit slightly better than market consensus for a 0.1% q/q contraction. Growth was mixed across the region. Sequentially, Spain’s GDP was up 0.6%, Italy’s rose 0.2%, but Germany’s down by 0.3% (weaker than consensus for flat growth)

US JOLTS jobs opening rose to 9 million in December, from 8.9 million in November, the highest in three months and beating market consensus of 8.75 million. Meanwhile, a bounce in US consumer confidence adds evidence of a resilient jobs market.  

Today, markets will focus on the FOMC meeting, China’s official PMIs and 4Q GDP data in Philippines, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

Regional FX

Asian FX broadly gained against the US dollar yesterday, with KRW (+0.5%), THB (+0.6%) and VND (+0.5%) outperforming their regional peers. But since the start of the year, Asian FX has had a challenging time as the US dollar stays firm. Meanwhile, South Korea’s industrial production rose 6.2% y/y (0.6% m/m) in December, which could signal improving growth prospects ahead, though retail sales fell 0.8% m/m.