JGB Market Compass

10yr JGB yield risk scenario: BoJ ends NIRP in March, earlier than expected

• "Summary of Opinions" for January BoJ meeting suggests that earnest discussions about exiting large-scale easing already underway

• 10yr JGB yield risk scenario (assumes ending NIRP in March) basically same as main scenario, but one month earlier

• 10yr JGB yield seen topping psychologically key level of 0.75% if JGB market starts factoring in increased probability of ending NIRP in March