JGB Market Compass

Referencing net trading of JGBs by five major investor groups during last rate-hiking phase

• To forecast net JGB trading volumes and JGB yields during current rate-hiking phase, we referenced previous phase (FY06)

• In FY06, JGB yields rose as bank selling predominated, but market then traded sideways as buying by trust banks, foreigners kicked in

• Even if FY06 patterns are reproduced during current rate-hiking phase, unlikely to be same overall as circumstances differ