ESG Series: COP29 outcomes

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Executive summary │ COP29 outcomes

Historic "face value" climate finance agreement

Historic, fiercely criticised, finance deal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance

 

 

 

 

Carbon markets – Article 6

 

 

Road to COP30 in Brazil

 

 

 

 

Following on from our earlier assessment into what corporates and investors can expect from deliberations at the 29th annual UN Climate Summit – known as COP29 – in the Azerbaijan (see here), we update our examination to offer a comprehensive breakdown of the outcomes from COP29.

In this COP29 outcomes thought leadership report, we focus on the issues that matter for corporates. We explain what happened in detail and why it matters in the following areas: (1) the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG); (2) Article 6; (3) Loss and Damage and the Santiago Network; (4) Adaptation; (5) Mitigation; (6) Global Stocktake; (7) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); and (8) what to watch out for in the run up to COP30 in November 2025.

COP29 concluded with a historic – albeit fiercely criticised – finance deal. Though, it was an excruciating two weeks of negotiations. The COP Presidency struggled, geopolitical tensions were ubiquitous, major emitters stayed quiet, language around pivoting from fossil fuels was resisted, and the private sector was all but absent. This “finance COP”  for many did not live up to its moniker, with insufficient climate finance quantums.

The most crucial deliberations surrounded two central dimensions:

1. New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance. Developed markets (DMs) will lead a new (voluntary) climate finance goal of at least USD300bn annually (up from USD100bn) by 2035 for emerging markets (EMs), as part of a total quantum of at least USD1.3tn annually by 2035 (from both public and private sources). This NCQG is in many respects ambiguous. First, the grants vs loans issue was not addressed, and the quantum is not all public finance − all sources are included, public, private, MDBs, and voluntary south-south contributions are mentioned. Second, it is not clear how the gap between the USD300bn and the total USD1.3tn quantum from all actors and all sources of finance, will be filled. A “Baku-to-Belém” roadmap to USD1.3tn will be finalised in 2025.
2. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Progress on the operationalisation of global carbon markets (Article 6) was made, although it places extensive responsibility on the Supervisory Body Mechanism to ensure the integrity of Article 6.4 credits – any corporate announcements around purchasing Article 6.4 credits will be scrutinised, in particular around baselines, additionality, non-permanence and leakage. For Article 6.2, very technical negotiations witnessed the responsibility largely left to buyers.

All in, COP29 bowed too much to the forces of diplomacy and too little to the realities of science, in our view. What to watch out for in the run up to COP30 in November 2025? February 2025 marks the deadline for updates to 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Climate levies are becoming a reality with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) expected to agree on a carbon pricing mechanism for shipping in April 2025. More concrete action on “phasing down fossil fuels” is likely given the contents of Brazil’s latest NDC submission. COP30 will also see the conclusion of the “UAE–Belém” work programme to develop indicators and targets for adaptation. Finally, we see biodiversity taking centre stage given the relevance of the Amazon rainforests and the convergence between climate and biodiversity discussions in recent years.