U.S. Desk Strategy Market Views

Bottom-line: A data dependent Fed needs to convey a hawkish message given inflation uncertainty

• Monetary Policy Updates: The Fed will likely skip again (and not hike) but deliver a hawkish message
• SEP Dot Expectations: We expect the Fed to keep the option to hike in 2023 alive, also reduce 2024 cuts
• FOMC Scenarios: We see a slightly hawkish market read to our base-case, with risk-off resuming