MUFG FX Research was ranked 2nd (from 50 eligible forecasters) in the Bloomberg Forecast Accuracy Ranking in G10 FX covering the four quarters to the end of March 2024.
Find out what our economists and strategists are expecting over the coming quarters.
Latest forecast update: 01 May 2024
| Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | |
| USD/JPY | 154.00 | 152.00 | 150.00 | 148.00 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0800 | 1.1000 | 1.1200 | 1.1200 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2560 | 1.2750 | 1.2950 | 1.2870 |
| USD/CNY | 7.2400 | 7.2200 | 7.1800 | 7.1500 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6600 | 0.6800 | 0.7000 | 0.6900 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6000 | 0.6100 | 0.6300 | 0.6300 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3800 | 1.3600 | 1.3400 | 1.3200 |
| USD/NOK | 11.020 | 10.640 | 10.270 | 10.180 |
| USD/SEK | 10.930 | 10.640 | 10.360 | 10.270 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9170 | 0.9180 | 0.8930 | 0.9110 |
| USD/CZK | 23.330 | 23.090 | 22.770 | 22.770 |
| USD/HUF | 365.70 | 363.60 | 361.60 | 366.10 |
| USD/PLN | 3.9820 | 3.9550 | 3.8840 | 3.9290 |
| USD/RON | 4.6110 | 4.5550 | 4.5000 | 4.5180 |
| USD/RUB | 93.630 | 93.780 | 94.880 | 97.720 |
| USD/ZAR | 19.200 | 19.300 | 19.100 | 19.000 |
| USD/TRY | 34.000 | 36.500 | 39.000 | 41.000 |
| USD/INR | 83.300 | 82.500 | 82.000 | 81.500 |
| USD/IDR | 16,200 | 15,900 | 15,700 | 15,650 |
| USD/MYR | 4.8000 | 4.7500 | 4.6000 | 4.5700 |
| USD/PHP | 58.200 | 57.500 | 57.000 | 56.500 |
| USD/SGD | 1.3500 | 1.3350 | 1.3200 | 1.3000 |
| USD/KRW | 1,370.0 | 1,350.0 | 1,320.0 | 1,300.0 |
| USD/TWD | 32.450 | 32.250 | 31.950 | 31.750 |
| USD/THB | 36.500 | 35.700 | 35.300 | 35.000 |
| USD/VND | 25,800 | 25,900 | 25,950 | 26,000 |
| USD/ARS | 915.00 | 1,000.0 | 1,600.0 | 1,700.0 |
| USD/BRL | 5.1300 | 5.1000 | 4.9500 | 4.9500 |
| USD/CLP | 955.00 | 965.00 | 960.00 | 960.00 |
| USD/MXN | 17.300 | 17.400 | 17.500 | 17.600 |
| USD/SAR | 3.7500 | 3.7500 | 3.7500 | 3.7500 |
| USD/EGP | 46.000 | 45.000 | 45.500 | 45.800 |
| 2024 | 2025 | ||
| US | 2.1% | 1.7% | |
| Japan | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| Euro area | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| Germany | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| France | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| Italy | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| Spain | 2.4% | 2.0% | |
| UK | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| Switzerland | 1.3% | 1.6% | |
| Norway | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| Sweden | 0.2% | 1.7% | |
| Canada | 0.7% | 1.9% | |
| Australia | 1.5% | 2.4% | |
| New Zealand | 0.9% | 2.3% | |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| China | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% |
| India | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Indonesia | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Malaysia | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% |
| Philippines | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| Singapore | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| South Korea | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Taiwan | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Thailand | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| Vietnam | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| 2024 | 2025 | ||
| US | 2.8% | 2.4% | |
| Japan | 2.4% | 1.9% | |
| Euro area | 2.2% | 2.1% | |
| Germany | 2.3% | 2.0% | |
| France | 2.3% | 2.0% | |
| Italy | 1.5% | 1.9% | |
| Spain | 3.0% | 2.2% | |
| UK | 2.3% | 2.1% | |
| Switzerland | 1.5% | 1.3% | |
| Norway | 3.5% | 2.4% | |
| Sweden | 2.7% | 1.9% | |
| Canada | 2.5% | 2.1% | |
| Australia | 3.1% | 2.7% | |
| New Zealand | 3.0% | 2.2% | |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| China | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| India | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Indonesia | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Malaysia | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Philippines | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| Singapore | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| South Korea | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Taiwan | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Thailand | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| Vietnam | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | |
| Fed | 5.38% | 5.13% | 4.38% | 3.88% |
| BoJ | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.50% |
| ECB | 3.75% | 3.50% | 3.25% | 3.00% |
| BoE | 5.00% | 4.75% | 4.50% | 4.25% |
| SNB | 1.25% | 1.00% | 0.75% | 0.75% |
| Norges Bank | 4.50% | 4.25% | 4.00% | 3.75% |
| Riksbank | 3.75% | 3.50% | 3.25% | 3.00% |
| BoC | 4.75% | 4.50% | 4.25% | 4.00% |
| RBA | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.10% | 3.85% |
| RBNZ | 5.50% | 5.25% | 5.00% | 4.75% |
| China 7-day Repo | 1.70% | 1.60% | 1.60% | 1.60% |
| China 1-year MLF | 2.40% | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.20% |
| China 1-year LPR | 3.35% | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.25% |
| India | 6.50% | 6.25% | 6.00% | 6.00% |
| Indonesia | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.00% |
| Malaysia | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | |
| Philippines | 6.50% | 6.50% | 6.50% | 6.25% |
| Singapore | 3.40% | 3.20% | 3.00% | |
| South Korea | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.25% | |
| Taiwan | 2.00% | 1.88% | 1.88% | |
| Thailand | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | |
| Vietnam | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | |
| US 2-Year Govt. Yield | 4.75% | 4.38% | 4.13% | 4.00% |
| US 10-Year Govt. Yield | 4.63% | 4.25% | 4.13% | 4.00% |
| Euro-zone 2-Year Govt. Yield | 2.80% | 2.60% | 2.40% | 2.20% |
| Euro-zone 10-Year Govt. Yield | 2.45% | 2.30% | 2.20% | 2.10% |
| Japan 2-Year Govt. Yield | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.90% |
| Japan 10-Year Govt. Yield | 0.85% | 1.00% | 1.10% | 1.20% |
| UK 2-Year Govt. Yield | 4.30% | 4.05% | 3.80% | 3.60% |
| UK 10-Year Govt. Yield | 4.20% | 4.00% | 3.80% | 3.70% |
| China 10-Year Govt. Yield | 2.40% | 2.47% | 2.55% | 2.60% |
| India 10-Year Govt. Yield | 7.16% | 7.08% | 7.00% | |
| Indonesia 10-Year Govt. Yield | 7.17% | 6.94% | 6.70% | |
| Malaysia 10-Year Govt. Yield | 3.95% | 3.72% | 3.50% | |
| Philippines 10-Year Govt. Yield | 7.00% | 6.80% | 6.60% | |
| Singapore 10-Year Govt. Yield | 3.44% | 2.97% | 2.50% | |
| South Korea 10-Year Govt. Yield | 3.64% | 3.32% | 3.00% | |
| Taiwan 10-Year Govt. Yield | 1.67% | 1.41% | 1.15% | |
| Thailand 10-Year Govt. Yield | 2.78% | 2.64% | 2.50% | |
| Vietnam 10-Year Govt. Yield | 2.79% | 2.70% | 2.60% |
| Unit | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
| US Natural Gas | USD/MMBtu | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.85 | 3.00 | 2.22 | 2.96 | 2.10 | |
| EU Natural Gas | EUR/MWh | 23.00 | 30.00 | 31.00 | 28.00 | 22.00 | 23.00 | 50.23 | 26.00 | 18.00 | 48.00 | |
| WTI Crude | USD/b | 83.00 | 88.00 | 90.00 | 86.00 | 92.00 | 93.00 | 73.88 | 90.25 | 93.00 | 84.00 | |
| Brent Crude | USD/b | 80.00 | 86.00 | 89.00 | 89.00 | 89.00 | 89.00 | 89.00 | 89.00 | 89.00 | 89.00 | |
| EU ETS EUA | EUR/MT | 86 | 88 | 93 | 95 | 91 | 97 | 98 | 86.84 | 95.25 | 98.00 | |
| Copper | USD/lb | 8,700 | 9,150 | 9,500 | 10,150 | 10,800 | 11,450 | 12,000 | 8,972 | 11,100 | 12,500 | |
| Aluminium | USD/MT | 2,280 | 2,350 | 2,450 | 2,600 | 2,750 | 2,950 | 3,150 | 2,330 | 2,863 | 3,200 | |
| Zinc | USD/MT | 2,375 | 2,400 | 2,480 | 2,520 | 2,600 | 2,625 | 2,675 | 2,432 | 2,605 | 2,850 | |
| Nickel | USD/MT | 16,600 | 17,000 | 17,150 | 16,850 | 16,750 | 16,900 | 17,350 | 16,897 | 16,963 | 18,150 | |
| Gold | USD/t oz | 2,250 | 2,180 | 2,350 | 2,250 | 2,170 | 2,150 | 2,075 | 2,221 | 2,161 | 2,050 | |
| Silver | USD/t oz | 24.50 | 24.80 | 25.90 | 26.00 | 25.40 | 25.00 | 25.70 | 24.76 | 25.53 | 22.50 | |
| Platinum | USD/t oz | 950.00 | 1,020.0 | 1,045.0 | 1,015.0 | 1,045.0 | 1,060.0 | 1,075.0 | 984.6 | 1,048.8 | 1,090.0 | |
| Palladium | USD/t oz | 1,080 | 1,090 | 1,125 | 1,150 | 1,225 | 1,090 | 1,165 | 1,070 | 1,158 | 1,195 | |
| Hard Coking Coal | USD/MT | 275.00 | 285.00 | 260.00 | 240.00 | 280.00 | 290.00 | 250.00 | 275.28 | 265.00 | 320.00 | |
| Iron Ore | USD/MT | 115.00 | 110.00 | 100.00 | 105.00 | 95.00 | 110.00 | 125.00 | 112.56 | 108.75 | 155.00 | |
| Soybean | USD/bu | 1,285 | 1,250 | 1,230 | 1,260 | 1,285 | 1,345 | 1,380 | 1,244 | 1,318 | 1,360 | |
| Wheat | USD/bu | 590.00 | 620.00 | 680.00 | 615.00 | 635.00 | 650.00 | 640.00 | 619.86 | 635.00 | 690.00 | |
| Corn | USD/bu | 430.00 | 455.00 | 460.00 | 420.00 | 450.00 | 475.00 | 480.00 | 450.23 | 456.25 | 550.00 | |
| Cotton | USD/lb | 85.00 | 82.00 | 81.00 | 84.00 | 85.00 | 87.00 | 90.00 | 84.52 | 86.50 | 91.00 | |
| Coffee | USD/lb | 3,350 | 3,100 | 2,950 | 2,580 | 2,620 | 2,500 | 2,510 | 3,108 | 2,553 | 2,600 | |
| Sugar | USD/lb | 23.80 | 23.50 | 23.00 | 24.50 | 24.80 | 25.10 | 25.80 | 23.02 | 25.05 | 27.00 |
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